The battle for key Assembly seats is largely about the suburbs right now.
The path for Speaker Robin Vos to get the GOP to a two-thirds majority would require him to net three seats, most likely by picking up a couple in rural areas.
But unless President Trump’s numbers improve significantly in places like Milwaukee’s suburbs, it’s likely Republicans will be playing more defense than offense this fall.
Handicappers are watching several things two months out from the November election: how the events in Kenosha impact voters in the ‘burbs, how the $2.3 million RACC had banked by the end of July will be used and how the state Dem Party’s huge war chest will influence outcomes. The latter is largely due to Wisconsin’s status as a swing state in the presidential election, but will undoubtedly filter down to legislative races. Meanwhile, Vos, R-Rochester, could use some of what he’s banked to take a flyer at a seat or two if the presidential race tightens to a dead heat.
The following are thumbnail sketches of the Assembly races to watch this fall, drawing on interviews with operatives, insiders and others. Factors at play include top of the ticket history, past candidate performance and fundraising numbers.
The battle for key Assembly seats is largely about the suburbs right now.
The path for Speaker Robin Vos to get the GOP to a two-thirds majority would require him to net three seats, most likely by picking up a couple in rural areas.
But unless President Trump’s numbers improve significantly in places like Milwaukee’s suburbs, it’s likely Republicans will be playing more defense than offense this fall.
Handicappers are watching several things two months out from the November election: how the events in Kenosha impact voters in the ‘burbs, how the $2.3 million RACC had banked by the end of July will be used and how the state Dem Party’s huge war chest will influence outcomes. The latter is largely due to Wisconsin’s status as a swing state in the presidential election, but will undoubtedly filter down to legislative races. Meanwhile, Vos, R-Rochester, could use some of what he’s banked to take a flyer at a seat or two if the presidential race tightens to a dead heat.
The following are thumbnail sketches of the Assembly races to watch this fall, drawing on interviews with operatives, insiders and others. Factors at play include top of the ticket history, past candidate performance and fundraising numbers.
The ‘burbs
14th AD, Rep. Robyn Vining, D-Wauwatosa
Pre-pandemic, some Republicans believed this suburban Milwaukee seat was their best chance for a pickup. And freshman Rep. Robyn Vining, D-Wauwatosa, has been raising money like she knew a fight was coming. Vining eked out a 138-vote win over then-state Treasurer Matt Adamczyk even as Scott Walker won his old Assembly seat by nearly 3 points over Tony Evers. To some, that underscored what a poor fit Adamczyk was for the district. Republicans were rooting for Bonnie Lee, director of outreach ministries for Northwest Baptist Church, to get through the primary, and she easily dispatched her two rivals. In late July, Vining had a more than 3-to-1 advantage over Lee for cash on hand, thanks in part to $65,000 in contributions from the state Dem Party for the cycle. At the top of the ticket, Trump lost the seat by 4 points in 2016, and he’ll need to shore up his standing with suburban women to help Lee. Republicans believe she is a great candidate for the district, while Dems plan to tie Lee to the president and argue worries about COVID-19 among suburban voters help their cause here. Insiders also will be watching to see how the Kenosha unrest plays into that suburban dynamic. Insiders note that some of the protests that have largely been confined to urban areas ended up in Wauwatosa as protesters confronted a police officer who has killed three people in the last five years. That could help Republicans reinforce the message of law-and-order. Meanwhile, insiders also note not all suburbs are alike. They expect Trump to struggle mightily in Wauwatosa but do better as the district stretches west into Waukesha County’s Brookfield.
Last race: Vining beat Adamczyk by 138 votes in 2018 for an open seat
2016 presidential: Clinton 48.3, Trump 44.1
2018 guv: Walker 50.8, Evers 47.9
Fundraising through pre-primary: Vining $138,431 raised, $162,027 cash on hand (COH), $1,341 loans; Lee $89,098 raised, $44,102 COH, $20,100 loans
23rd AD, Jim Ott, R-Mequon
When looking at GOP-held seats in the suburbs, the discussion often starts with Ott’s Menomonee Falls-area seat. Clinton won the district by 5.5 points in 2016, and Dems took a run at Ott in 2018 only to see him win reelection by nearly 3 points. Now, he faces Deb Andraca, who has a background in politics, volunteering and working as a substitute teacher. The Dem Party’s deep pockets are again showing up here with more than $32,600 to Andraca, who has outraised Ott nearly 2-to-1 in 2020. Ott’s background as a TV weatherman has helped him build good name ID, he’s got a background fighting for tougher drunk driving laws and he’s generally well-liked, insiders say. The task for Dems will be to paint him more as a partisan, using his voting record in the Assembly, and then see what kind of impact Trump has in the district. Of the suburban Milwaukee Assembly seats, this is the top protect for Republicans.
Last race: Ott won 51.9 percent to 48 percent
2016 presidential: Clinton 49.2, Trump 43.7
2018 guv: Walker 51.5, Evers 47.3
Fundraising through pre-primary: Ott $57,090 raised, $56,926 COH, $1,000 loans; Andraca $110,883 raised, $122,650, $10,000 loans
13th, Rob Hutton, R-Brookfield
Hutton has a better district on the numbers than Ott, but he has neither the name ID, nor the money. One of the eyebrow-raising developments in this race has been Hutton’s lackluster fundraising so far. He has just $10,120 raised in 2020, $6,000 of that from committees, and had $37,485 in the bank. Meanwhile, Sara Rodriguez, a registered nurse and health care exec, has raised $61,399. Trump narrowly won the district four years ago, and Hutton won a surprisingly close reelection in 2018 by 2.9 points even as Walker took the district by 6.5. Insiders note the difficulty for rank-and-file GOP members in large media markets like Milwaukee to build name ID unless they’ve got a background like Ott’s. Republicans say Hutton has been ramping up his efforts in recent weeks, while Dems plan to point out the Republican’s company got a Paycheck Protection Program loan as he signed onto a letter opposing the federal government helping state governments. Dems also like Rodriguez’s healthcare background considering the politics of COVID-19 and her fundraising so far.
Last race: Hutton won 51.4-48.5
2016 presidential: Trump 47, Clinton 45.6
2018 guv: Walker 52.4, Evers 45.9
Fundraising through pre-primary: Hutton $10,120 raised, $37,485 COH; Rodriguez $61,399 raised, $53,073 COH, $1,000 loans
24th, Dan Knodl, R-Germantown
Two years ago, there were rumbles that Knodl’s race might end up closer than expected. He ended up beating Emily Siegrist by more than 7 points. Those rumbles are popping up again, though it remains to be seen if this race is a top-tier contest once October rolls around. Trump won the district by 3.5 points in 2016, while Walker took it by more than 9. It’s still a question if Siegrist, a nurse practitioner who served five years in the National Guard, can be a better fit for the district than she was two years ago. She has regularly posted on social media about marching in support of Black Lives Matter and being in Kenosha to protest the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Election watchers are unsure how that will mesh with Trump’s push to drive a law-and-order message in the suburbs. After getting teased by early polling two years ago, Dems are in a wait-and-see mode on whether the district is truly competitive come late fall.
Last race: Knodl won 53.6-46.3
2016 presidential: Trump 48.5, Clinton 45
2018 guv: Walker 54.2, Evers Evers 44.5
Fundraising through pre-primary: Knodl $20,940 raised, $48,009 COH, $42,000 outstanding loans; Siegrist $38,223 raised, $39,509 COH, $705 loans
21st, Jessie Rodriguez, R-Oak Creek
Trump’s struggles in the suburbs could show up in southern Milwaukee County, too. But insiders generally believe Rodriguez could overcome them unless the bottom truly dropped out. Even then, some say, she’d likely get a lot of help from pro-school choice groups in her race against South Milwaukee Mayor Erik Brooks, who works as a communications consultant. Insiders also note while Trump has struggled in the suburbs, there are also state issues such as whether schools are reopening for in-person instruction. Insiders are watching how that will play in these seats. Insiders also note Brooks isn’t from the population center for the district, and Dems say it isn’t one of their top races.
Last race: Rodriguez won 54.7-45.2
2016 presidential: Trump 49.3, Clinton 44.1
2018 guv: Walker 52.1, Evers 45.8
Fundraising through pre-primary: Rodriguez $14,714 raised, $38,289 COH; Brooks $32,245 raised, $27,554 COH
88th, John Macco, R-Green Bay
When politicos talk about the suburbs, they’re often focused on those surrounding Milwaukee. But underscoring the political calculus extends to smaller ‘burbs as well, insiders are keeping an eye on this seat in the Green Bay area. Trump won the seat by 7 points in ‘16, and Walker took it by more than 5 in ‘18. So insiders have generally seen an edge for Macco against Kristin Lyerly. The obstetrician/gynecologist has outraised Macco for the year and had a slight edge on him for cash on hand at the end of July even without significant help from either the party or the ADCC. She’s also another Dem candidate who can talk authoritatively on healthcare issues with COVID-19 a concern for many. While Trump cleaned up in the Green Bay market four years ago, the trend in the Marquette University Law School Poll hasn’t been as favorable for the president, and some early looks at the Assembly seat suggest the presidential race is tight. The Assembly seat is also in the open 30th SD, which is expected to get heavy attention that could help drive turnout here. The UW-Green Bay campus is also in the district, but organizing college kids could be a little more difficult this year with things a little up in the air on whether they’ll still be in class come November. Still, the general view is Macco has an edge so long as he puts in the work and doesn’t expect to glide through the election. Dems also note that outside groups came in heavy two years ago to knock down Macco’s opponent early and are watching to see if they try that approach again.
Last race: Macco 53.3-46.6
2016 presidential: Trump 50.2, Clinton 43.2
2018 guv: Walker 51.6, Evers 46.4
Fundraising through pre-primary: Macco $33,589 raised, $58,662 COH, $5,000 loans; Lyerly $65,793 raised, $59,397 COH, loans $417
30th, Shannon Zimmerman, R-River Falls
Parts of this western Wisconsin district are quickly becoming more Twin Cities suburbs than rural Wisconsin, and that’s part of why insiders are keeping an eye on this race. St. Croix County is seeing some of the most explosive growth in the state, and while Trump won the district by 8 points four years ago, Walker won it by just 3. Sarah Yacoub is a former Los Angeles County prosecutor who moved to the district with her husband, a biomedical physicist at the University of Minnesota, and their family. The attorney outraised Zimmerman in 2020, but he had a more than 4-to-1 advantage for cash on hand at the end of July. Yacoub lost a bid for St. Croix County DA in 2016 with 39 percent of the vote and in 2017 the St. Croix County Board deadlocked on her appointment for an open seat even though she was the only applicant. Zimmerman has been hit with a complaint over his residence. Still, Dems say Yacoub’s running to the left of the district and they aren’t investing in the race yet. As Trump pushes the law-and-order message, it’s an open question how the events in Minneapolis this summer will impact the voters come November. Insiders believe Zimmerman has an edge, though they’ll be watching.
Last race: Zimmerman won 53.9-46
2016 presidential: Trump 49.7, Clinton 41.9
2018 guv: Walker 50, Evers 46.9
Fundraising through pre-primary: Zimmerman $25,286 raised, $44,692 COH, $211,400 loans from Senate bid; Yacoub $50,675 raised, $45,038 COH
The rural GOP target seats
The road to a two-thirds majority for Republicans likely includes winning at least two of the Dem-held districts Republicans are eyeing in western and northern Wisconsin. Insiders believe Vos has the districts on his target list and will plow resources into them if the opportunity is there to take them. That, some say, might account for the light fundraising so far by the GOP challengers.
94th AD, Steve Doyle, D-Onalaska
When Doyle first won the seat in a 2011 special election, it was considered a GOP-leaning district. But it has slowly moved more toward swing status. Doyle, a longtime member of the La Crosse County Board, has got great name ID, a moderate image and a lot of cash in the bank. He reported $243,462 cash on hand at the end of July, boosted by $100,500 from the ADCC and $75,000 from the state Dem Party over the cycle. Doyle faces Republican Kevin Hoyer, a farmer who had less than $11,000 in the bank at the end of July. Republicans say Hoyer did a fundraiser last month with former Gov. Scott Walker that should help boost his next fundraising report. Still, some Republicans acknowledge Doyle will be a tough out, and Dems say the incumbent is in a strong position two months out.
Last race: Doyle unopposed
2016 presidential: Trump 48.4, Clinton 44.9
2018 guv: Walker 49.4, Evers 48.5
Fundraising through pre-primary: Doyle $212,271 raised, $243,463 COH; Hoyer $18,388 raised, $10,930 COH
73rd AD, Nick Milroy, D-South Range
Hillary Clinton won this district by just 11 votes in 2016. Milroy was unopposed in 2018. And the question for insiders is whether Trump can pull in enough numbers in this northern Wisconsin district to put Milroy on the hot seat. Milroy faces Keith Kern, a small business owner and member of the Superior City Council. At the end of July, Milroy had $48,487 in the bank, thanks partly to a $30,000 boost from the state party. Kern, meanwhile, had less than $14,000 cash on hand. While Trump did well here four years ago, the district went back to its Dem tendencies in the 2018 guv race. What’s more, the Assembly seat performed more to its past Dem tendencies during the May special election for the 7th CD. Dem Tricia Zunker won 56 percent of the vote in the Assembly seat as she lost the congressional district by 14. That begs the question of whether 2016 was a one-off or if Trump’s presence on the ballot could drive an opportunity to beat Milroy. Dems argue Biden will do better with blue-collar, white voters than Clinton did in 2016, helping the ticket in a district like this. Insiders also note Milroy’s hunting background as a veteran and a hunter play well in this district.
Last race: Milroy unopposed
2016 presidential: Clinton 46.96, Trump 46.93
2018 guv: Evers 54.1, Walker 43.5
Fundraising through pre-primary: Milroy $48,487 raised, $43,682 COH; Kern $17,271 raised, $13,716 COH, $100 loans
74th AD, Beth Meyers, D-Bayfield
Republican James Bolen, who runs a resort and is the former executive director of the Cable Area Chamber of Commerce, came within 2 points of beating Dem Sen. Janet Bewley, D-Mason, in 2018 in what was a decent environment for Dems. So after he was recruited to run for the Assembly seat, it looked like he’d be a strong challenger for Meyers, who took 56 percent of the vote in 2018. But so far, Bolen hasn’t pulled in much cash. He raised just $1,500 during the pre-primary period with $1,000 of that from Illinois businesswoman Liz Uihlein and another $500 from the Price County GOP. Meanwhile, Meyers had banked $203,174 with $53,000 in help from the state Dem Party and $34,000 from the ADCC. Trump won the seat by 3.2 points in 2016, while Evers took it by 5 two years ago and Zunker got 54.5 percent in the 7th CD special election. Like with the other GOP targets in rural Wisconsin, it’s believed Vos has a number he’s targeting to invest in those races and will make a play for them if there’s an opening. So Bolen’s lackluster fundraising might not end up being that much of an issue.
Last race: Meyers won 56.2-43.8
2016 presidential: 48.9, Clinton 45.7
2018 guv: Evers 51.6, Walker 46.4
Fundraising through pre-primary: Meyers $182,797 raised, $203,174 COH; Bolen $7,365 raised, $7,603 COH, $2,620 loans
Southwestern Wisconsin
51st AD, Todd Novak, R-Dodgeville
The question for the three-term lawmaker going into every election is simple: How high of a mountain will he have to climb? He won in 2016 by 2.7 points even as Clinton won his southwestern Wisconsin district by less than 2 points and by 1.4 points in 2018 even as Evers won the seat by 9.3. The southwestern corner of the state is one of the few that still regularly splits its tickets, and Novak likely will need to win over a lot of Biden voters if Trump’s numbers don’t perk up. He faces Kriss Marion, a small farmer and owner of a bed-and-breakfast who serves on the Lafayette County Board. She also lost a bid against GOP state Sen. Howard Marklein, of Spring Green, in 2018; in that race, she fell short of Marklein in the Assembly seat, too. Marion had an advantage for cash on hand at the end of July with $93,664 in the bank to Novak’s $64,083, and she’s received $28,000 in help from the state Dem Party, a sign this district is a priority. Novak, who is well-liked and comes across as a moderate in his district, has defied expectations before, and insiders wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again.
Last race: Novak won 50.7-49.3
2016 presidential: Clinton 48, Trump 46.2
2018 guv: Evers 53.7, Walker 44.4
Fundraising through pre-primary: Novak $42,581 raised, $64,083 COH, $1,057 obligations; Marion $116,022 raised, $93,664 COH
96th AD, Loren Oldenburg, R-Viroqua
On the numbers, this looks like it could be a race to watch after Oldenburg won the open seat two years ago by 3.3 points. But 18-year-old Josefine Jaynes got through the primary, beating farmer Tucker Gretebeck, who some believed had a better profile to fit the district. Some GOP groups had even started their research on Gretebeck, believing he was going to make it out. Dems praise Jaynes as sharp, and Biden could do well in the district. But her youth could be a tough sell in this rural, southwestern Wisconsin district, and she’d raised less than $6,000 through the end of July. This is another rural seat that flipped to the GOP and hasn’t flipped back. Obama won it by nearly 13 points in 2012, Trump took it by almost 9 and Walker by 2.
Last race: Oldenburg won 51.7-48.3
2016 presidential: Trump 51.3, Clinton 42.6
2018 guv: Walker 50.1, Evers 48
Fundraising through pre-primary: Oldenburg $40,350 raised, $34,233 COH; Jaynes $5,981 raised, $3,113 COH
